South Australian state election, 2014

South Australian state election, 2014
South Australian state election, 2014
Australia
2010 ←
15 March 2014

  Replace this image male.svg Isobel redmond crop.jpg
Leader Jay Weatherill Isobel Redmond
Party Labor Liberal
Leader since 21 October 2011 8 July 2009
Leader's seat Cheltenham Heysen
Last election 26 seats 18 seats
Seats needed decrease2 increase6
2PP @ 2010 48.4% 51.6%
2PP polling 46% 54%
BP polling 34%* 45%



Incumbent Premier

Jay Weatherill
Labor

The 2014 South Australian state election will elect members to the 53rd Parliament of South Australia on 15 March 2014. All seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2010 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2006 election, will become vacant. The 12-year incumbent Australian Labor Party, currently led by Premier Jay Weatherill, will be challenged by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia, currently led by Opposition Leader Isobel Redmond.

Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.

Contents

Date

The last state election was held on 20 March 2010 to elect members for the House of Assembly and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.[1]

The election campaign must run for a minimum of 25 days or a maximum of 55 days. Between 7 and 10 days after the writs are issued, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of South Australia of any changes in their place of residence. Candidates wishing to stand for election can nominate between the issue of the writs and no more than 14 days after the close of rolls for a deposit of $450.[2]

Current parliament

The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Isobel Redmond, are the two main parties in South Australia. In the 2010 state election, of 47 seats total, the Labor Party won 26 seats and the Liberal Party won 18 seats. Three seats were won by independents, Bob Such (Fisher), Geoff Brock (Frome), and Don Pegler (Mount Gambier). Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2010 include the SA Greens and the Family First Party. In the upper house, the Labor Party holds eight seats, the Liberal Party holds seven seats, the SA Greens, the Family First Party, and No Pokies all hold two seats each, and Dignity for Disabled holds one seat.

A Port Adelaide by-election and a Ramsay by-election is expected to occur in early February 2012.

Current pendulum

The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

To produce 'fair' boundaries, the Electoral Commission of South Australia since 1989 has been required to re-draw boundaries after each election with two-party electoral outcomes in mind. The coming redistribution will "effectively wipe out the Labor government's majority".[3]

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Bright Chloe Fox ALP 0.4%
Mitchell Alan Sibbons ALP 2.1%
Newland Tom Kenyon ALP 2.2%
Hartley Grace Portolesi ALP 2.3%
Florey Frances Bedford ALP 3.6%
Elder Pat Conlon ALP 3.6%
Colton Paul Caica ALP 4.0%
Mawson Leon Bignell ALP 4.4%
Wright Jennifer Rankine ALP 4.6%
Ashford Stephanie Key ALP 4.8%
Light Tony Piccolo ALP 5.3%
Fairly safe
Little Para Lee Odenwalder ALP 6.7%
West Torrens Tom Koutsantonis ALP 6.7%
Lee Michael Wright ALP 7.1%
Torrens Robyn Geraghty ALP 7.7%
Kaurna John Hill ALP 8.6%
Safe
Reynell Gay Thompson ALP 10.4%
Enfield John Rau ALP 10.5%
Taylor Leesa Vlahos ALP 11.1%
Giles Lyn Breuer ALP 11.9%
Port Adelaide Kevin Foley ALP 12.8%
Croydon Michael Atkinson ALP 14.1%
Napier Michael O'Brien ALP 15.8%
Cheltenham Jay Weatherill ALP 16.1%
Playford Jack Snelling ALP 16.2%
Ramsay Mike Rann ALP 18.0%
Very safe
LIBERAL SEATS
Marginal
Chaffey Tim Whetstone LIB 3.8% v NAT
Morialta John Gardner LIB 4.1%
Adelaide Rachel Sanderson LIB 4.2%
Norwood Steven Marshall LIB 4.9%
Fairly safe
Stuart Dan van Holst Pellekaan LIB 7.6%
Safe
Morphett Duncan McFetridge LIB 11.1%
Finniss Michael Pengilly LIB 11.2%
Davenport Iain Evans LIB 11.8%
Unley David Pisoni LIB 12.2%
Waite Martin Hamilton-Smith LIB 12.9%
Kavel Mark Goldsworthy LIB 15.8%
Heysen Isobel Redmond LIB 16.5%
Schubert Ivan Venning LIB 17.8%
Goyder Steven Griffiths LIB 18.3%
Hammond Adrian Pederick LIB 19.0%
Very safe
MacKillop Mitch Williams LIB 20.1% v IND
Bragg Vickie Chapman LIB 21.1%
Flinders Peter Treloar LIB 26.2%
INDEPENDENT SEATS
Mt Gambier Don Pegler IND 0.4% v LIB
Frome Geoff Brock IND 7.5% v LIB
Fisher Bob Such IND 16.6% v LIB
Metropolitan seats
Rural seats


Polling

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of just over 1000 electors. The declared margin of error at this sample size is ±3 percent. Two-party preferred figures are calculated based on preference flows at the previous state election.

House of Assembly opinion polling
Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP Lib Nat Grn Oth ALP Lib
Apr–Jun 2011 30% 40% 1% 14% 15% 46% 54%
25 Feb–6 Mar 2011 29% 42% 1% 14% 14% 44% 56%
Mar 2010 election 37.5% 41.7% 1.0% 8.1% 11.7% 48.4% 51.6%
14–18 Mar 2010 35.3% 42.5% < .5% 9.3% 12.3% 48% 52%
Jan–Mar 2010 36% 39% 1% 10% 14% 50% 50%
Oct–Dec 2009 37% 35% 1% 12% 15% 53% 47%
Jul–Aug 2009 41% 33% 1% 11% 14% 56% 44%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.


Better Premier polling^
Rann Redmond
Apr–Jun 2011 34% 45%
25 Feb–6 Mar 2011 32% 50%
Mar 2010 election
14–18 Mar 2010 43% 45%
Jan–Mar 2010 44% 41%
Oct–Dec 2009 48% 31%
Jul–Aug 2009 46% 27%
Polling conducted by Newspoll
and published in The Australian.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
Satisfaction polling^
Rann Redmond
Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
Apr–Jun 2011 31% 59% 51% 29%
25 Feb–6 Mar 2011 30% 59% 52% 25%
Mar 2010 election
14–18 Mar 2010 43% 48% 59% 23%
Jan–Mar 2010 45% 48% 58% 20%
Oct–Dec 2009 50% 38% 51% 18%
Jul–Aug 2009 51% 40% 43% 10%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.


See also

  • South Australian state election, 2010

References

External links


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